National Security: Crisis, Conflict, and the Future.

The state of U.S. national security is facing unprecedented levels of uncertainty, extending beyond traditional geopolitical threats to encompass domestic vulnerabilities and a rapidly evolving technological landscape. A recent address at The Cipher Brief HONORS Dinner highlighted a shifting definition of national security, moving from historical concerns like territorial sovereignty and Cold War-era containment to present-day challenges including internal division, great power competition, and technological dominance.

Historically, U.S. national security focused on securing land, preserving the Union, and deterring hostile powers. Post-9/11, the focus shifted to counterterrorism. Today, the rise of China and a resurgent Russia are prompting comparisons to a “New Cold War,” with escalating tensions around Taiwan, Ukraine, and broader territorial claims in the South China Sea. However, the threats are no longer solely external.

A critical concern is the erosion of domestic unity and the strength of American institutions. The author emphasizes the importance of upholding the Constitution and fostering resilience to counter internal divisions. This internal strength is seen as foundational to projecting power abroad and effectively responding to external threats.

The author warns against a retreat into isolationism or acceptance of a world divided into spheres of influence. History demonstrates that aggression is only halted by force or geographical constraints, and a divided world would be inherently more violent, repressive, and economically stagnant. Open international commerce and specialization are vital for wealth creation, and fortress economies ultimately fail.

Beyond geopolitical and domestic concerns, the technological revolution presents both opportunities and risks. The “tech arms race” in areas like AI, robotics, and quantum computing will likely determine the dominant power in the international system for decades to come. Maintaining a lead in these technologies requires a commitment to innovation and a rejection of economic populism, which could hinder progress.

The current moment is characterized by a confluence of uncertainties – about the robustness of American governance, the potential for great power conflict, and the ability to generate the necessary power and will to navigate the evolving global landscape. The author advocates for a return to foundational principles – fidelity to the Constitution, resilience in the face of adversity, and a commitment to building alliances with like-minded nations.

Ultimately, the assessment is sobering. The U.S. faces a complex and multifaceted set of challenges that demand a comprehensive and proactive approach. Success will depend not only on military strength and technological innovation but also on the ability to restore domestic unity, uphold democratic values, and forge a path toward a more stable and prosperous world. The author’s concluding sentiment – a refusal to accept defeat – underscores the urgency of the moment and the importance of sustained leadership and national resolve.