Ukraine War: Ending Conflict May Take Longer Than Expected
After nearly three years, the war in Ukraine is far from over. Despite Donald Trump’s initial claims during his campaign that he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours upon returning to the White House, his recent statements suggest a more realistic timetable of six months. His nominee for special envoy to Ukraine, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, is slightly more optimistic, believing a deal could be feasible in around 100 days.
The complex geopolitical dynamics at play make swift resolution challenging. Russia’s primary goal remains the replacement of Ukraine’s pro-Western government with one more favorable to Moscow, or what President Vladimir Putin has termed the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of a country he considers within Russia’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, Ukraine seeks the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, including Crimea and eastern regions previously occupied.
The vast gap between these objectives makes a quick resolution unlikely. Neither side is close to achieving its aims, and total victory remains an unrealistic expectation for both parties. However, this does not mean a diplomatic solution is impossible. Leaders on both sides have hinted at potential compromises, suggesting room for negotiation.
News of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza, brokered by representatives from Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s teams, has raised hopes for similar progress in Ukraine. Yet, as even Trump himself acknowledged, ending Europe’s first major land war in decades is likely to be much more challenging than the Middle East conflict.
Factors unique to the Ukrainian context contribute to this complexity. The war’s impact on regional security, NATO’s eastern flank, and European energy supplies adds further layers of intricacy to any potential peace deal. Moreover, the deeply entrenched domestic politics in both countries may hinder leaders’ ability to make significant concessions without risking their political standing.
Looking ahead, while a swift end to the war remains uncertain, ongoing diplomatic efforts offer some cause for optimism. The international community’s continued engagement and support for Ukraine will be crucial in navigating these complex negotiations and achieving a lasting peace.